Last year in November I wrote a blog post (Why I Stay Invested in Stocks?) about some investors (they were my friends) who were convinced that a market crash was imminent, and they were waiting on sidelines with cash to invest. Well, this is nearly the end of 2018 and that crash … [Read more...] about Why that market crash didn’t happen?
MarketHistory
When do I exit stock positions?
In July 1999, Warren Buffett gave a speech to business leaders in Sun Valley, Idaho. Back then, the U.S. stock market had been on a tear. Understandably, many attendees were very optimistic about their businesses’ prospects. Undaunted though, Buffett went on to make the argument … [Read more...] about When do I exit stock positions?
Revisiting the lost decade of U.S. stocks
If you were following business news in 2010, you must have come across one or two headlines bemoaning America’s “lost decade”. Between 2009 and 2012, there were many discussions in the business media and many columns were written in the press on this subject. How investors have … [Read more...] about Revisiting the lost decade of U.S. stocks
Stock investing is not a zero-sum game
Why do I say that? Because people often think of the stock market as a roller coaster. It goes up for a while, but then goes down, eventually ending up at the same place where it began, and then the cycle starts over. The implication is that one must catch the up-cycle to make … [Read more...] about Stock investing is not a zero-sum game
Yes stocks are volatile
… but only in the short run. As we saw in this previous post, stocks go down 10% or more every year. More often than not, they also recover quickly. So what return could we expect in a given year? Here is a good chart from J.P. Morgan. It shows the range of annual returns that … [Read more...] about Yes stocks are volatile
Should you invest in gold?
Is gold a good investment in today’s world? After all, gold is no longer the dominant medium of exchange – it has been replaced by national currencies backed by sovereign countries. Our obsession with the yellow metal is well known. Gold coins have been in use for trade since … [Read more...] about Should you invest in gold?
Real investors don’t fear a recession
Recessions and expansions are normal phases of a business cycle in modern free-market economies. A recession occurs when the economy stops growing – instead, it contracts. This happens from time to time – the economy grows in fits and starts. The normal state of an economy is … [Read more...] about Real investors don’t fear a recession
Nobody’s good at predicting recessions
Various organizations and economists in the USA try their hand in predicting when the next recession might occur – none of them have been very successful. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) is the de facto authority that marks the beginning and the end of each … [Read more...] about Nobody’s good at predicting recessions
Most investors underperform the stock market
The bad news is that we, the individual investors, collectively don’t do so well when investing in stocks. The good news is that most of this underperformance is due to our own behavior and therefore can be fixed. Let’s first look at the evidence of our underperformance over … [Read more...] about Most investors underperform the stock market
Beware, the markets go down often!
Because we are long-term investors, we will frequently face market downturns. To better prepare ourselves for these unpleasant but inevitable declines, it is good to study the history of the stock market declines. Looking at the US stock market, on average this is what we … [Read more...] about Beware, the markets go down often!