In criminal justice system, “it is better to let the crime of a guilty person go unpunished than to condemn the innocent.” [US Supreme Court 1895] Broadly speaking, in any system where there is uncertainty and incomplete information, there are two types of decision errors that … [Read more...] about Avoid false positives in your investing
InvestorBehavior
Recent downturns through history’s lens
As the market teeters at the edge of another correction (so what else is new!), as always, we stand ready to take advantage of low prices whenever they come. My dry powder coffers are now full. Over the last 12 months, I took all the cash out of my portfolio that I had invested … [Read more...] about Recent downturns through history’s lens
Make your investing an infinite game
I like to think of investing as a kind of an infinite game. Although it is not strictly an infinite game, I believe it has similar characteristics. So what is an infinite game? It’s a game that has no definitive conclusion. It has no finish line and no one person can be … [Read more...] about Make your investing an infinite game
Why we can do better than professional investors
Stanley Druckenmiller regrets selling his NVIDIA position too soon. He said recently that he wished he had held on to his NVIDIA shares, but admitted he’s no Warren Buffett: “I don’t own things for 10 or 20 years. I wish I was Warren Buffett.” I admire his candid confession but … [Read more...] about Why we can do better than professional investors
If you wait for the robins
Over the last two years, too many people bailed out on stocks because they wanted to avoid a possible recession. Peter Lynch once said: “Far more money has been lost by investors trying to anticipate corrections, than lost in the corrections themselves.” Economic forecasts are … [Read more...] about If you wait for the robins
Not much going on
There is not much to do in investing these days. In fact, this whole year, I didn’t have many investing transactions. It has been that kind of year for me. One major reason why I didn’t have many stock buys this year is because I buy when the market is going down, not when it … [Read more...] about Not much going on
Where is the market headed next?
The S&P 500 index reached its peak in January 2022 and then proceeded to fall through most of the remaining year. By June 2022, it had dropped 20% below its peak and thus officially entered a bear market. From there it went on to further decline, eventually reaching a bottom … [Read more...] about Where is the market headed next?
Why are BREIT investors redeeming shares?
One of my popular posts over the last couple of years was on Blackstone’s non-traded commercial REIT called BREIT. I wrote about it a couple of times here. My last post on it was in August 2020. Back in 2018 when I first wrote about BREIT, it was a new up-and-coming REIT. For … [Read more...] about Why are BREIT investors redeeming shares?
From Buffett’s letter
Warren Buffett’s annual shareholder letter came out last month. As usual, it was widely covered by the mainstream media and numerous financial analysts. There is not much I can add to what was already written about it in the press. Though there is this one minor angle on … [Read more...] about From Buffett’s letter
A guide for young investor
I am in my fifties and I have been saving and investing since I began working full time more than twenty-five years ago. I have been writing about my investing in these pages for about three years. If you are in your 20s or 30s, perhaps you just started earning enough to save … [Read more...] about A guide for young investor