In criminal justice system, “it is better to let the crime of a guilty person go unpunished than to condemn the innocent.” [US Supreme Court 1895] Broadly speaking, in any system where there is uncertainty and incomplete information, there are two … [Read More...] about Avoid false positives in your investing
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Dry powder investing helps me stay productive
Since I last wrote in March when it was nearing a 10% correction, the stock market today is clearly in a correction. By some measures, it has been a bear market (with NASDAQ down more than 20% in early April, for instance). So what would an investor … [Read More...] about Dry powder investing helps me stay productive
Recent downturns through history’s lens
As the market teeters at the edge of another correction (so what else is new!), as always, we stand ready to take advantage of low prices whenever they come. My dry powder coffers are now full. Over the last 12 months, I took all the cash out of my … [Read More...] about Recent downturns through history’s lens
Make your investing an infinite game
I like to think of investing as a kind of an infinite game. Although it is not strictly an infinite game, I believe it has similar characteristics. So what is an infinite game? It’s a game that has no definitive conclusion. It has no finish line … [Read More...] about Make your investing an infinite game
A low-cost way to invest in alternative assets
I found this book at a Costco book stand. I am not a Tony Robbins follower but a quick scan of it made me curious. So I borrowed a copy from my local library. This is not meant to be a book review though. For some good online reviews of the book, … [Read More...] about A low-cost way to invest in alternative assets
In defense of Musk’s pay package
Back in 2018, in a blog post here, I wrote this about Tesla CEO’s pay package: While I am not sure if Tesla could ever achieve all the stated performance goals – 10x market cap increase, 21x revenue increase, 15x EBITDA, all within ten years – … [Read More...] about In defense of Musk’s pay package
My magnificent six stocks
I just finished reading Semper Augustus’ 2023 shareholder letter. Chris Bloomstran, its well-known CIO, writes detailed annual letters. They are full of well-researched data and, while long, always make interesting read. This year’s letter was no … [Read More...] about My magnificent six stocks
Amazon is now a 50-bagger for me
“Here’s how much you would have made in Amazon if you had invested $1000 ten years ago.” We often see such cheesy headlines in the financial press. So indulge me when I say this: It took 24 years for my first Amazon share purchase to become 50x … [Read More...] about Amazon is now a 50-bagger for me
My portfolio performance 2024
Yes, it is that time of the year when I compare my portfolio’s performance with the market indexes. For reference, see 2023’s results here. Usually, I start with my portfolio’s one-year relative performance. But then I also follow it with my … [Read More...] about My portfolio performance 2024
Year-end 2023 portfolio performance
What a difference a year makes! When I did my portfolio review for 2022, I was down by about a third in just one year, 12% worse performance than the S&P 500 index. Back then, I wrote that I lean toward an improving stock market in the following … [Read More...] about Year-end 2023 portfolio performance
On my portfolio concentration
The S&P 500 is a popular index among US investors who prefer hands-off dollar cost averaging way to invest in stocks. It is a market cap weighted index which is perhaps the most suitable form of an index for passive investing. Why? Because it … [Read More...] about On my portfolio concentration
Where is the market headed next?
The S&P 500 index reached its peak in January 2022 and then proceeded to fall through most of the remaining year. By June 2022, it had dropped 20% below its peak and thus officially entered a bear market. From there it went on to further decline, … [Read More...] about Where is the market headed next?
Why we can do better than professional investors
Stanley Druckenmiller regrets selling his NVIDIA position too soon. He said recently that he wished he had held on to his NVIDIA shares, but admitted he’s no Warren Buffett: “I don’t own things for 10 or 20 years. I wish I was Warren Buffett.” I … [Read More...] about Why we can do better than professional investors
If you wait for the robins
Over the last two years, too many people bailed out on stocks because they wanted to avoid a possible recession. Peter Lynch once said: “Far more money has been lost by investors trying to anticipate corrections, than lost in the corrections … [Read More...] about If you wait for the robins
Should investors prefer dividend paying companies over others?
In a word, no. Why do I say that? In this post, I will share my thoughts on dividends payers. Across the universe of all publicly traded companies, I group them into three distinct buckets: (1) Companies that pay generous dividend today … [Read More...] about Should investors prefer dividend paying companies over others?
Not much going on
There is not much to do in investing these days. In fact, this whole year, I didn’t have many investing transactions. It has been that kind of year for me. One major reason why I didn’t have many stock buys this year is because I buy when the … [Read More...] about Not much going on
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How can it be a bull market?
As I work on putting together my portfolio’s end-of-year performance review, I thought I’d drop a brief note on the state of the markets today. As of January 24th, the stock market has fully recovered from its 2022-23 drawdown (if we go by the … [Read More...] about How can it be a bull market?
Why are BREIT investors redeeming shares?
One of my popular posts over the last couple of years was on Blackstone’s non-traded commercial REIT called BREIT. I wrote about it a couple of times here. My last post on it was in August 2020. Back in 2018 when I first wrote about BREIT, it was … [Read More...] about Why are BREIT investors redeeming shares?
In anticipation of economic recovery
I have been hearing concerns about the state of the economy, inflation trend, looming recession, etc. since the beginning of 2022. Some blog readers have sent me comments on this. I hear this from other individual investors who I regularly interact … [Read More...] about In anticipation of economic recovery
Year-end 2022 portfolio performance
I am back with my first post of 2023. In case you were wondering, no I didn’t abandon my stock investments on account of a disappointing 2022. If anything, I was buying more shares throughout last year as stocks went downhill. Here’s a recap of how … [Read More...] about Year-end 2022 portfolio performance
When my stocks go private
Activision Blizzard (ATVI) is getting acquired by Microsoft (MSFT). Activision shareholders will be paid $95 per share in cash if the proposed acquisition is approved by various antitrust bodies worldwide. I am a long-time shareholder of both … [Read More...] about When my stocks go private
Near-term returns versus long-term
I admit that my stock portfolio is not doing well this year. Nearly all my major holdings are down by double digits. More than half are down by a third or more. Five are down by 50%. My top 25 holdings make up vast majority of my stock portfolio – … [Read More...] about Near-term returns versus long-term
Better to be too early than too late
Stocks went down again in September, this time dropping below the June lows. Year to date, the S&P 500 index is down by about -24%. It is a veritable bear market indeed. In response to the S&P 500 touching new lows, I invested more of my … [Read More...] about Better to be too early than too late
If you’ve ten years to invest
Last week I read Davis New York Venture fund’s annual letter. Its eponymous portfolio manager Chris Davis writes thoughtful analyses of investing landscape every year. I enjoy reading his investor letters even though I have not (yet) invested any … [Read More...] about If you’ve ten years to invest