As the market teeters at the edge of another correction (so what else is new!), as always, we stand ready to take advantage of low prices whenever they come. My dry powder coffers are now full. Over the last 12 months, I took all the cash out of my portfolio that I had invested … [Read more...] about Recent downturns through history’s lens
MarketHistory
If you wait for the robins
Over the last two years, too many people bailed out on stocks because they wanted to avoid a possible recession. Peter Lynch once said: “Far more money has been lost by investors trying to anticipate corrections, than lost in the corrections themselves.” Economic forecasts are … [Read more...] about If you wait for the robins
Where is the market headed next?
The S&P 500 index reached its peak in January 2022 and then proceeded to fall through most of the remaining year. By June 2022, it had dropped 20% below its peak and thus officially entered a bear market. From there it went on to further decline, eventually reaching a bottom … [Read more...] about Where is the market headed next?
More stock buys in June
Ken Fisher (founder/CEO of Fisher Investments) recently asked this on Twitter: Is the amount of ink and time spent on [this] “Bear Market” relative to the total time down below -20%—bullish or bearish? He was referring to that short period of time in June-July (about a … [Read more...] about More stock buys in June
Who is afraid of a recession?
These days, there is a steady drumbeat in the financial media about an imminent economic recession in the country. I don’t have a position on whether one is inevitable. I try to only invest in quality businesses that can survive (and even thrive) in a recession. Like Chris Davis … [Read more...] about Who is afraid of a recession?
The odds of making money in stocks
Whether we like it or not, we investors are always making bets. We invest our capital with the expectation that down the road we will be able to recover all of it plus some. But since the future is unknowable, we implicitly make a bet every time we invest. Specifically, … [Read more...] about The odds of making money in stocks
Are we in a short correction?
This stock market crash is looking more like a short-but-deep correction than a conventional bear market. Since its March 23rd trough, the market has been relentlessly going uphill. As of today, the S&P 500 is just about 12% off from its prior peak level. Not that I am … [Read more...] about Are we in a short correction?
My gun is reloaded
In his 2010 shareholder letter, Warren Buffett wrote that his elephant gun had been reloaded, and his trigger finger was itchy. He was referring to Berkshire’s dry powder cash that was intended for major acquisitions. Extending the same metaphor, today I could say that my BB gun … [Read more...] about My gun is reloaded
A very short bear market?
I came across an interview that CNN’s Poppy Harlow did with Warren Buffett in September 2018. She said investors were worried about cracks showing in the U.S. economy after a long nine-year run. And then she asked if Buffett was worried about an imminent recession (4:50). To … [Read more...] about A very short bear market?
Volatility is good for my investments
People fear double-digit stock market declines. I see them as opportunities. The US stock market has been more volatile lately. And my portfolio is better off because of this volatility. I just finished reading Nassim Taleb’s book Antifragile. He has got me thinking about my … [Read more...] about Volatility is good for my investments